This is a study from an elite institution published in a respectable journal in the social sciences. Certainly they took the time to perform a controlled experiment and assigned managers at random to deliver the birthday cards late or on time. That would be cheap to do and minimally invasive for the human subjects.
[Reads abstract]
They didn't? It's a pure observational study that one measure of sloppiness in the organisation correlates with another? What do we pay these guys for?
Per abstract it's a "a dynamic difference-in-differences" analysis, which means likely that they see whether the employee behavior changes after the event. But establishing causation with it still requires quite a few assumptions.
PNAS is kinda known for headline grabbing research with at times a bit less rigorous methodology.
> Certainly they took the time to perform a controlled experiment and assigned managers at random to deliver the birthday cards late or on time. That would be cheap to do and minimally invasive for the human subjects.
If the results are true, it would be actually quite expensive because of the drop in productivity. It could also be a bit of a nightmare to push through ethical review.
They could start by observing the rate at which birthday cards are delivered on time, and not vary too much from that.
I suppose the impact on productivity isn't known in advance, and it might be that failing to receive a birthday card from a normally diligent manager costs the company more in productivity than it gains from a sloppy manager unexpectedly giving one on time.
It says it's different to human skin in multiple aspects.
Do I need more collagen or more moisture in my skin? I would expect evolution made some pretty good choices around default human skin for typical human activities, and if more moisture was obviously good, I would already have it.
Maybe tilapia skin is better for people who spend 24 hours a day swimming in lakes.
> It says it's different to human skin in multiple aspects.
No it says "even more than in human skin and other skins". Not different.
> Do I need more collagen or more moisture in my skin?
For this context? Yes? Clearly the article answers that already. I even included in my first reply but you'll have a third chance to read it:
> ...which are very important for scarring...
And your attempt to move the goal post fails miserably as well. Or do you think humans evolved to perfection by thinking this:
> I would expect evolution made some pretty good choices around default human skin for typical human activities, and if more moisture was obviously good, I would already have it.
I don't think you are debating in good faith. Good luck.
Maybe eBay should publish the price the winning bidder actually bid.
This would let people stop thinking "I lost by one cent" in that situation. It also has a marketing benefit: look at all these people who got great bargains relative to what they would have paid. And it's not an unreasonable amount of transparency: in second price auctions e.g. for stamps or electricity, it's normal to publish the details of all the bids.
Of course eBay has already thought about this more deeply than me and perhaps trialled it and decided they didn't like it. Maybe it's off-putting to sellers to see they lost something for $10 to a buyer who would have paid $30?
The only way to win by a cent is to put your bid at that.
If the current price is $5 and your max bid is $30 and I put a max bid of $100, it will make the current price $31 - $35, whatever the increment is.
To get ebay to accept a bid of one cent over, you have to explicitly set that. Let's say, I'd actually pay $30 as well. $30.01 isn't materially different. So if I put in $30.01, my bid becomes higher than yours.
They don't want to guarantee an interview to everyone who sends them an improved solution, either.
If three people send them improvements, they'll probably get interviews. If three thousand do, the problem is easier than they thought or amenable to an LLM or one bright person figured out a trick and shared it with all his classmates or colleagues or all of GitHub.
cURL would operate such a program in good faith, and quickly earn the trust of the people who submit the kind of bug reports cURL values.
Your bank would not. Nor would mine, or most retail banks.
If the upfront cost would genuinely put off potential submitters, a cottage industry would spring up of hackers who would front you the money in return for a cut if your bug looked good. If that seems gross, it's really not - they end up doing bug triage for the project, which is something any software company would be happy to pay people for.
> 2029: $50.00 (Suuuuuuuper bullish case) - Approaching Google’s ~$60 ARPU. By now, the infrastructure is mature, and "Conversational Commerce" is the standard. This is what Softbank is praying will happen.
There's no way Softbank's, or any other investor's, extreme bull case is that four years from now, ChatGPT sells the same amount of advertising as Google and earns $50 a year.
The extreme bull projection is that everyone buys everything through ChatGPT and each user is worth thousands per year. If you don't believe there's at least a slim chance of this you shouldn't be investing in OpenAI, and if you're an OpenAI executive who doesn't think there's a chance of this you shouldn't be writing pitch decks for SoftBank.
I meant super bullish from an outsiders point of view, but I do agree that the projections from within the investors circle are likely multiples of that.
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