Sorry, I don’t buy it at all. People are not rolling up to my kids’ daycare in F150/XC-90/Suburban/4Runner because of CAFE making smaller cars more expensive.
They are buying it because they like bigger cars, and the people that can’t afford bigger cars still want to sit up higher, hence the popularity of CRV/Rav4 type vehicles.
If you don't buy it, I assume that you have solid alternate explanations of why the trends in vehicle size/power/design seem to closely track the preferences expressed by federal policy (intentionally or not) along with fuel costs.
Yes, there are (largely misguided but in some senses game-theory justified) preferences for higher/larger/heavier vehicles. But from what I've read, these don't provide much (statistical) explanatory power for the actual numbers.
They are buying it because they like bigger cars, and the people that can’t afford bigger cars still want to sit up higher, hence the popularity of CRV/Rav4 type vehicles.